The Times
reports[ii]
that the Prime Minister Boris Johnson was told by two dozen scientists that
“his hands-off plan (in tackling the Covid19 pandemic) wasn’t working and an
immediate halt to socialising and the closure of schools was our only hope of
avoiding catastrophe.”
This
explains the Government’s about-turn on 20 March.
The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
(the apt acronym Sage) published stark evidence with these inescapable
conclusions. The analysis by Imperial
College London emphasised that social distancing was essential in order to
reduce the prospective death toll in the U.K from 250,000 to a few thousand.[iii]
Evidence as compelling as this demanded nothing
less than an emergency response.
Had the
pandemic’s science been prioritised differently in Government, places of public
resort like theatres cinemas museums, universities schools gyms would have been
closed earlier across the U.K.
Many organisations
and institutions had acted ahead of the Government’s original pronouncement
last Friday about those closures.
The
previous week, to take one local example, arising from closure of its arts and
sporting venues by Belfast City Council, the Ulster Orchestra had to cancel an
array of concerts and community events.
Following
so soon after the achievement of “Getting Brexit Done,” important questions
arise. For example, does the precious
union’s response to its first great test as an “independent” nation inspire
confidence?
And did the initial policy response
in the U.K. of diverging from the World Health Organisation scientific
guidelines contain the virus to good effect?
In earlier
declarations the PM and Northern Ireland’s First Minister explained that they
were following the science. What science
precisely could they have meant?
Political science maybe; epidemiology and
virology almost certainly not. The UK’s
hands-off start was being exposed by Sage for its dangerous ambiguity.
The
Observer illustrates the relative success of three Asian countries compared to
Europe. “Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore
which had their first confirmed cases before Europe but acted early and fast,
still have deaths in single digits...Taiwan,” it adds, “helped by having an
epidemiologist as vice-president, started tracing passengers from Wuhan as soon
as China warned of a new type of pneumonia in the city last December before
Covid-19 was identified.[iv]”
The PM’s
sure-footed new Chancellor of the Exchequer reminded Parliament when delivering
the “coronavirus budget” on 11 March that this is a great country. Who knew?
The
confidence with which this nationalist self-praise can be asserted has,
however, been dented by a continuation of panic-buying by the Great British
public.
That behaviour is, arguably, a
symptom that people at large doubt the Government’s claims that they have
control, that the big retail chains are meeting public demand.
How
consistent is it for the party of business to chide shoppers’ behaviour when
its friends and backers in the financial and business sectors sell off shares
in record numbers, resulting in staggering sums being wiped off national
wealth?
When
consumers observe the politicians’ business allies exhibiting pandemonium,
behaving with panic selling, the message is clear. It’s not just consumers, but the signs are
that shareholders also lack confidence in Government.
The behaviour of panic buying and selling
provide hard data, quantified evidence of mistrust and unease in the Government’s
ability to protect the public interest, to support the NHS.
Occasionally
the messengers of the Government’s belatedly more stringent campaign have their
own record that has dented public trust.
One, for example, is the Senior Cabinet
Minister dispatched this morning (24 March) to endorse the PM’s dramatic and
sombre address to the nation last night. People recall Michael Gove’s dismissal of empirical
evidence against Brexit with his assertion that the country is sick of experts.
And while
Northern Ireland’s First Minister has been a vocal supporter of the Government
strategy on tackling Covid-19, her role in regional Government has been
criticised in a recent report of a Public Inquiry.
On 18
March political leaders and chief medical officers from both sides of the Irish
border met in Armagh.[v] This important event focussed attention on
the process of harmonising actions to combat the pandemic across Ireland.
In
public relations terms, unfortunately, the television pictures of Northern
Ireland’s First and Deputy First Ministers did not bode well as their body
language appeared to show.
The First
Minister’s countenance at the cross border session did not convey joy.
Only
days before this meeting, she has been criticised for not reading her advice
guidelines on the infamous Renewable Heating Initiative, aka the cash for ash
scandal. The revelations of the exhaustive
(and expensive) Public Inquiry may have savaged her with faint chiding, but must
have hurt.
On top of
this, her record as leader of the party when holding the balance of power in HM
Parliament resulted in the “Betrayal Act” (withdrawing the UK from the EU), a
failure to deliver its prime electoral objective to protect the British Union.
Despite this setback, her party continued to advocate
the UK approach to the pandemic, aligning Northern Ireland with Westminster
policy hands-off on Covid-19.
Regarding containment
policy, for example, the reason for Northern Ireland’s misleadingly low numbers
of virus cases compared to the Republic is the vast discrepancy between
diagnostic tests carried out in the two jurisdictions.
There is
hope, however. Unexpected benefits arise
from the coronavirus.
Residents of East
Belfast are not being woken at 6 30 a.m by aeroplanes leaving the George Best City
airport.
Fish are returning to the River
Lagan as I see people casting their lines into our improving waterway. The natural environment loves the lock
down.
And there
are signs that community relations here might just share in the benefits - if
the First Minister’s statesman-like remarks in Armagh are carried through.
As the
First and Deputy First Ministers stood side by side (with appropriate social
distancing), Mrs Foster emphasised that “the coronavirus has no political consideration. It is neither British nor Irish, unionist or
nationalist. Politics must be set aside.”
Leaders
need words with action to follow. This
is a promising start.
About
time yes, but very well said.
©Michael McSorley 2020
[i]
BBC News 24 March 2020 “UK brings in strict curbs on life to fight virus” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news
[ii]
The Times 21 March 2020 Chris Smyth and Tom Whipple “Lockdown for a year is our
best weapon against spread.
[iii]
Observer 22 March 2020 Michael Savage, Robin McKie & Phillip Inman “From we
ask you to we tell you: the week Britain was locked down.”
[iv]
Observer 22 March 2020 Emma Graham-Harrison “Asian Countries acted while the
west dithered. Now we see the results.”
[v]
Irish Times 21 March 2020 Jennifer Bray and Freya McClements “Dublin and
Stormont eventually align: tense week ends with greater harmony across the
Border”
