Concern is growing about HM Government’s handling of the
pandemic.
This adds to the already heavy burden on normal people in
dealing with the dangers of a highly contagious virus for which has no curative
vaccine has been found.
As the U.K’s death
toll reaches record levels and the PM promotes the easing of restrictions, commentators
at home and abroad question the direction of the country’s leadership.
Following “the halting prolixity, waffle and intellectual
confusion” of the PM’s reply to the new leader of the Labour Party about the
abandonment of community testing, a Times[i] journalist and former
Conservative MP posed this question.
“It’s time to ask whether Boris Johnson is up to the job.” The ever affable and polite Matthew Parris can
be direct and to the point.
Searching questions are not the sole preserve of British
experts. Reports from Europe and America
reveal equally disquieting criticism of our Government’s handling of the
pandemic.[ii]
Failings articulated by observers abroad
include the following:
·
the worst death rate in Europe
·
an underfunded and unprepared NHS
·
the herd immunity theory (espoused on 13
March by chief scientific officer Patrick Vallance)
·
the unchecked spread of infections from
hospitals to care homes
·
the opposition to “Stay Alert” in Scotland
Wales and Northern Ireland
·
lateness to enter into confinement and
·
the lack of testing despite the presence of
expertise within the U.K.
To these, one might add the belated addition by
Westminster on 18 May of loss of taste and smell to the symptoms of Covid-19. Scientific advisors told Government to list
it[iii] alongside breathing
difficulties, a new continuous cough and fever.
The London editor of the Irish Times reports on the
“growing unease within the (Conservative) party and inside the government
itself about its handling of the crisis.[iv]”
He quotes Newcastle
University expert Allyson Pollock, a member of SAGE which had warned of 250,000
prospective deaths because of the original mitigation approach, adding her
comments about current Government panic.
Whereas the U.K. abandoned community testing on 12 March,
other countries such as Germany and Ireland retained contact tracing, testing
and isolation.
Contacts of people
testing positive continue to be assiduously traced, as likewise infected
contacts are traced and isolated - to prevent the spread of their infection.
The benefits of applying scientific method are clear. Whereas the infection rate (“R”) across the
U.K. has fallen to below 1, in Ireland R has sat at 0.5 since the end of March.[v] Rigorous contract tracing is the fundamental
prerequisite of the World Health Organisation for nations, and particularly as
they risk the easing of restrictions.
MPs themselves are criticising the Government for its
inadequate ability to test the British public throughout the pandemic.[vi] Parliament’s Science and Technology
Committee said that capacity had not been increased “early or boldly enough.”
Whereas Ireland has completed testing of residents and
staff in all care homes recently, Northern Ireland has announced belated plans
to test all residents and staff in care homes in June.[vii]
This follows earlier criticism of the
accuracy of reported death statistics in GB and Northern Ireland. Figures[viii] produced by Northern
Ireland’s Health Department have been excluding fatalities occurring in the
community and in nursing homes.
Ireland introduced its daily briefings to the media and
public a couple of weeks before the U.K. with theirs being presented every day
by a team of medical officials without politicians attending. Public policy announcements are delivered separately
by the Taoiseach and Health Minister, following the science.
The U.K’s briefings are led either by the PM,
the Health Secretary or other high-ranking member of the Cabinet, flanked by a
pair of scientists in supportive roles.
The U.K.’s reputation sits under a microscope.
Other British journalists have cited an
example that links the pandemic and the Government’s Brexit policy of
withdrawing from European regulatory controls.
They say that the “ability of Britain to lead
global research into Covid-19 risks being fatally undermined if UK crashes out
of EU without a trade deal[ix]” by the end of 2020. This prospect would lead, for example, to the
loss of access to Horizon Europe funding scheme from which UK is the major
beneficiary.
For the country which presented arguments about its
economic might as a vote winner to divorce from the EU, this first test of its
newly declared independence raises questions about the Government’s capacity
for crisis management.
The efforts of
“the world’s fifth largest economy” to “save lives” look inadequate. Small nations such as New Zealand, South
Korea and Greece are doing much better on the life-saving criterion.
What science has the U.K. been following?
One modeller has concluded that 30,000 lives
would have been saved had the U.K. lockdown started on 16 rather 23 March.[x]
The week before questioning the PM’s competence, Matthew
Parris took our politicians to task.[xi] No longer is it sufficient for our political
leaders to “hide behind the science.”
His
argument is that
“they’re afraid to take ownership of the trade-offs that only
politics can settle: trade-offs between deaths caused by one disease and deaths
caused by others less immediately in the public eye; between the longevity of
the elderly and the education of the young; between mortality now and debt that
will scar a whole generation; between loss of life and loss of livelihood.
Their evasion is not pretty and if they think the public are not beginning to
notice they are wrong.”
U.K. citizens do notice.
As a captive audience - locked down - people want reassurance from
Government, an exit strategy which is unambiguous and evidence-based.
Despite the PM’s promotion of a changed
message from Stay at Home to Stay Alert, the reactions of the British public suggest
otherwise, risk aversion. Visitor businesses
in Cumbria and parents of P1 and P6 schoolchildren speak for many, an indication
of a lack of confidence in the PM’s stance.
The state of public confidence in Government was evident
at the start of the pandemic and remains so two months on.
The early lockdown was marked by
panic-selling of shares by stockbrokers and panic-buying of toilet rolls by
normal people; its easing, likewise, is being marked by public alarm at lives
not saved as people feel apprehensive about Government’s ability to take back
control.
©Michael McSorley 2020
Postscript:-
This series about Covid-19 comprises of 4 articles to
date:-
Part 1 (24 March 2020) A Test for Elected Leaders[xii]
Part 2 (11 April 2020) Coping with Contagion, a Survival
Strategy.[xiii]
Part 3 (30 April 2020) The New Vocabulary[xiv]
Part 4 (21 May 2020) Following the Science
PostPostscript - evidence during the week June 6-12 2020 of pandemic handling & impact:
PostPostscript - evidence during the week June 6-12 2020 of pandemic handling & impact:
·
Friday 12 June report by ONS of a drop in UK
GDP 20.4[i]% in April, the first full
month of UK lockdown, and its largest monthly contraction on record;
·
Wednesday 10 June report by the OECD of an
11.5% hit to UK economy from Covid, among the worst rates[ii] of the major nations;
also the OECD’s comment that the UK figure is compounded by looming prospect of
trade deal failure, with its recommendation of temporary extension of EU Single
Market to mitigate impact;
·
Wednesday 10 June report of evidence from the
epidemiologist Prof Neil Ferguson (Imperial College London) telling HoC
Committee of MPs that earlier lockdown[iii] would have at least halved death toll; his
conclusion was endorsed by Chief Scientist to the UK Government 2000-07 Sir
David King on BBC2 Newsnight[iv];
·
Article on Saturday 6 June 2020 by Times journalist
Matthew Parris critiquing PM[v]: - “Boris Johnson never
had any judgement or strategic vision... his powers of concentration have
always been weak... he was only ever a shallow opportunist with a minor talent
to amuse...”
[i] BBC
News 12 June “UK Economy shrinks a record 20.4% in April due to Lockdown” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53019360
[ii]
BBC News 10 June “UK Economy could be among worst hit among leading nations” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52991913
[iii] BBC
News 10 June “Earlier Lockdown Would have Halved death Toll” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52995064
[iv]
BBC2 Newsnight 10 June 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m000jyjz/newsnight-10062020
[v]
The Times Matthew Parris 6 June 2020 “Johnson has been tested and found
wanting. The marriage of convenience between the PM and his party is not likely
to survive the years of difficulty that lie ahead”
[i]
The Times 9 May 2020 p 23 Matthew Parris “Johnson needs to take control of the
cockpit...we need the captain to stop the blustering and talk to us like grown
ups.”
[ii]
Guardian 12 May 2020 Patrick Wintour “UK takes a pasting from world’s press
over coronavirus crisis” https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/12/uk-takes-a-pasting-from-worlds-press-over-coronavirus?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR3tdYbV2pdjnN2EP4EZSrxqAIKd-f68X4NjK-3lVQgr8twjO_g5K9YbV5s#Echobox=1589286505
[iii]
BBC News 18 May 2020
[iv]
Irish Times 16 May 2020 Denis Staunton “They’re in a panic because they’re
making it up as they go along”
[v]
RTE News 16 May 2020
[vi]
BBC News 19 May 2020 “UK too slow to increase testing capacity say MPs” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52716828
[vii]
Belfast Telegraph 18 May 2020 David Young https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/covid-19-testing-for-all-staff-and-residents-in-northern-ireland-care-homes-announced-39212185.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3Mi0yN2Y0LWExMDctYTM2ZC1lNTE2M2VkMGFiODHaACQ0Zjg3ZWY5Zi0xYzI1LTQ2ODAtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjY2PaACQ3MjRhNWEwOC0yMGJkLTQwMGYtYTk5Zi1hZDRkMjQ3ZDIyNzZUjE_yhCG64EO8abQGr9sRgwTupmFNEEWYEzh1i6M3sA
[viii]
Belfast Telegraph Adrian Rutherford 2 May 2020 https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/true-scale-of-coronavirus-tragedy-emerges-as-new-figures-put-ni-deaths-at-30-higher-than-first-reported-39174622.html
[ix] Observer
3 May 2020 Toby Helm & Robin McKie
[x]
Guardian 19 May 2020 “The UK Government was ready for this pandemic. Until it
sabotaged its own system” George Monbiot quoting modeller James Annan
[xi]
The Times 25 April 2020 p 23 Matthew Parris “Ministers can’t keep hiding behind
the science.”
[xii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-test-for-elected-leaders.html
[xiii]
https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/coping-with-contagion-survival-strategy.html
[xiv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-new-vocabulary.html
