Introduction
“...to deliberately sow discord and division during a pandemic that relies on the public taking collective action to save lives and protect the NHS is a special kind of sin...”[i]
Whereas this comment was part of the Observer’s excoriation of the U.K’s PM after he belatedly sacked his discredited advisor, the criticism could likewise apply to Northern Ireland’s regional Government, the NI Executive headed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP).
As the region’s biggest party, it exerted substantial influence at Westminster holding the balance of power until a year ago. This meant supporting the Conservative Government’s economic policies including Brexit (despite the NI majority vote to remain in the EU). It also gave them valuable experience of national government as well as indoctrination in the Conservative philosophy for business.
Beware the Ides of March
As the U.K. belatedly began its first lockdown on 23 March 2020, Northern Ireland’s First Minister proclaimed that she was “following the science” by delaying closure of regional schools. Despite that principled stance, her party has subsequently exhibited signs which point to some jettisoning of its scientific adherence. This involves the apparent prioritising of business development over the recommendations from her Chief Medical Officer (CMO) and her Chief Scientific Officer (CSO).
When her 5-party coalition government modified the scientists’ recommendation of a 6-week circuit-breaker and agreed to a less stringent 4-week plan on 14 October ending on 19 November (“no ifs no buts,” said the First Minister at the outset), some prominent DUP members broke ranks within a day of the plan’s launch.
They criticised the impact of closure on business; and a subsequent week-long spat culminated in the unedifying scene of the CMO having to correct one of her senior party members, a former Health Minister, for misrepresenting the public health message.
Circuit not being broken
On a subsequent occasion a party MP criticised the head of the British Medical Association in NI for being rich enough to be able to ignore businesses. This was when the GP repeated cautions about the growing crisis in emergency medicine.
When a party leader fails to censure an MP attacking apolitical advisors who are experts in medicine and science, trust in political leadership suffers. The community is aghast when prominent politicians undercut the ethos of “we’re all in this together.” Fomenting division makes marketing and successful implementation of measures to suppress the killer virus much more difficult.
As the regional government’s Executive met (w/e 14 Nov) to review the operation of the circuit breaker after 3 of its 4-week stint, the scientists again warned of the likely need for extending restrictions.
Reading between the lines, this means that the CSO/CMO were expressing well-founded concerns that the virus was spreading and that the current measures were insufficiently rigorous.
As an electorate well-used to collapsible administration waited patiently for its government’s decision to review, paralysis infected the body politic. The CMO/CSO recommendations for a 2-week extension were presented by the trusted Unionist Minister of Health but were vetoed by the “business-friendly” DUP. Days came and went with no agreement in sight as exasperated businesses appealed for “clarity” to allow businesses time to plan.
Regional administration fragility
The eventual agreement after 4 days of rancour, involving a 1-week extension of restrictions and a phased reopening of hospitality business pleased nobody.[ii] Public disenchantment with dilatory politicians returned, morphing into disbelief and mistrust. Worst of all has been the impact of dithering, bickering and vetoing on public and business confidence in the administration which was badly punctured, again.
As the BBC report explained,
“whereas the DUP pushed for restrictions to end sooner... other parties point to the advice from public health officials which says that the situation in NI is still at a level too unpredictable to commit to opening up again.”
People were left wondering about the rationale used by politicians to make life and death decisions, the health of the public. On the one hand, people know that recommendations from the scientists are based on objective research and analysis of statistical datasets. On the other hand, people ask what evidence and selection criteria do the leaders of regional Government use to justify rejection and compromising of the scientific expertise.
The NI Executive, after all, has published its own policy-making guidelines[iii] explaining how to deliver on the imperative. Chapter 3 emphasises the need for policy to be evidence-based.
Exponential spread of virus in Northern Ireland
All of the political acrimony was happening at a time when Northern Ireland has been witnessing the worst infection rates in the U.K. The surge in case numbers has been evident to the scientists for many weeks. It seems probable that the viral spread is connected to insufficient regard being paid to the CMO/CSO expertise.
And this also at a time when our neighbours across the border became the first country in Europe to reduce infection rates for three successive weeks. Ireland’s scientists had noted that rates in 25 of its counties had been suppressed significantly half-way into its stringent lockdown, the sole exception being County Donegal.
Source:European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control, Irish Times 14 Nov 2020
In contrast to NI, the Republic’s 6-week lockdown
included all retail rather than just hospitality and close personal services of
NI’s 4-week circuit-break, as well as a 5k travel-from-home limit and no travel
beyond county borders.
As two journalists reported[iv] (3 weeks into the strict 6-week lockdown):-
“Ireland was the first European country to return to lockdown and now has the longest period of decreasing infections in Europe.”
The same paper’s Health editor, in similar vein, reported[v] that:-
“...in
Northern Ireland the incidence of the virus is more than four times that of the
Republic; and the incidence of a virus patient dying in intensive care in the
Republic is less than half that in the U.K.”
Veto to resist stronger controls on business
In advance of the review to consider extending restrictions of the 4-week compromise, a DUP MP and the party leader went public to declare that the party would veto further measures which threaten business. The MP also attacked the Unionist Health Minister. He argued that the Minister
“would be better concentrating on how he can improve the health service rather than destroying the economy to deal with the failings of his Department and of himself as a Minister.[vi]”
This bellicose message was broadcast despite the CSO and CMO saying that further restrictions to protect public health and the NHS will be needed in December, such are the infection rates. The scientists, in other words, were repeating their concerns about the worsening impact of the pandemic on NI. Pressure on hospitals was rising exponentially and the NHS was under threat.
Climb down
On the evening of 19 November, the DUP performed a volte face and followed the science that has been staring us all in the face for weeks. In a show of much-needed cabinet collective responsibility, the NI Executive surprised its long-suffering constituents by agreeing without a single veto to a two-week lock-down of greater stringency beginning a week hence. This, as one journalist[vii] put it,
“only a week after less stringent measures were blocked by her party.”
A range of business interests has, unsurprisingly, expressed withering criticism of regional government’s handling of the pandemic.[viii] Shops closed for four weeks, allowed to open for one week only with little time to plan, and then must close for two weeks maybe more, like a merry-go-round. Business uncertainty and anger with governmental administration are loud and clear, literally and metaphorically an open and shut case. Hospitality Ulster, to pick one example, said
“all trust in the Executive by the hospitality sector has been wiped away... we have been left with no trade, no hope and a huge amount of redundancies...”
The party which alienated its four coalition partners in using a “cross-community” veto on tightening public health regulations a week previously has now managed to “destroy” its Tory-inspired reputation for business acumen for added good measure.
To aggravate politicians and attack scientists is one thing; but to disillusion the domestic electorate and the business community at the same time is bordering on reckless. Dysfunction rules.
A 7-day interregnum between the end of the 4-week circuit-breaker and the new 2-week Christmas-saviour lockdown allows citizens and businesses more space to engage in retail therapy before being locked out between 26 November and 11 December.
With the temporary easing of restrictions and the lure of Christmas being compressed time-wise, it will be sobering to observe Northern Ireland’s infection rates in the coming weeks.
©Michael McSorley 2020
Postscript:-
This Covid-19 series comprises of the following articles :-
Part 1 (24 March 2020) A Test for Elected Leaders[ix]
Part 2 (11 April 2020) Coping with Contagion, a Survival Strategy.[x]
Part 3 (30 April 2020) The New Vocabulary[xi]
Part 4 (21 May 2020) Following the Science[xii]
Part 5 (11 June 2020) Beautiful books[xiii]
Part 6 (25 June 2020) Stone Circles[xiv]
Part 7 (26 July 2020) Finding positives in a global crisis[xv]
Part 8 (21 August 2020) Humour for the pandemic[xvi]
Part 9 (28 September 2020) Holidays at Home[xvii]
Part 10 (10 October 2020) The London Marathon[xviii]
Part 11 (30 October 2020) Halowe’en[xix]
Part 12 (21 November 2020) Discord and Division
BIBLIOGRAPHY
[i] The Observer, editorial 15 Nov 2020. "Dominic Cummings"
[ii] BBC NI News 14 Nov 2020 “Coronavirus; Latest row shows Stormont Relations Fragile as ever” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54931512
[iii] A Practical Guide to Policy Making in Northern Ireland 2 May 2016 NI Executive
https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/publications/practical-guide-policy-making-northern-ireland
[iv] Irish Times 14 Nov 2020 Paul Scott and Naomi O’Leary
[v] Irish Times 14 Nov 2020 Paul Cullen
[vi] Belfast Telegraph 17 Nov 2020 Suzanne Breen “DUP’s Wilson called pathetic and petty for latest attack on Swann.”
[vii] Irish Times 21 Nov 2020 Freya McClements Northern correspondent “Foster defends shift to tougher lockdown measures.”
[viii]
Belfast Telegraph 20 Nov 2020 "NI Executive tightens restrictions but business
chiefs scathing about devastating move before Christmas"
https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/ni-executive-tightens-covid-restrictions-but-business-chiefs-scathing-of-devastating-move-before-christmas-39768553.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3NS1lNGMzLWZiZGItYTU2Mi1jODE2M2VkMGFiODHaACRhMzFjZmEwYy04MWU5LTRmNWEtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYznaACRiOGM1YTNlNS0zOGVkLTQyZmEtYTlhMS1mMjRlMTIzODBlMDmYtw50DKr6TQzTYAPJdo5Obm-US-GvVzs7ZDSJC2hjow
[ix] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-test-for-elected-leaders.html
[x] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/coping-with-contagion-survival-strategy.html
[xi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-new-vocabulary.html
[xii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/05/following-science.html
[xiii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/beautiful-books.html
[xiv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-archaeology-of-stone-circles.html
[xv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/07/finding-positives-in-global-crisis.html
[xvi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/08/humour-for-pandemic.html
[xvii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/09/holidays-at-home.html
[xviii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-virtual-london-marathon.html
[xix] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-spirits-of-haloween.html
