Discord and Division

 Introduction

“...to deliberately sow discord and division during a pandemic that relies on the public taking collective action to save lives and protect the NHS is a special kind of sin...”[i]

Whereas this comment was part of the Observer’s excoriation of the U.K’s PM after he belatedly sacked his discredited advisor, the criticism could likewise apply to Northern Ireland’s regional Government, the NI Executive headed by the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). 

As the region’s biggest party, it exerted substantial influence at Westminster holding the balance of power until a year ago.  This meant supporting the Conservative Government’s economic policies including Brexit (despite the NI majority vote to remain in the EU).  It also gave them valuable experience of national government as well as indoctrination in the Conservative philosophy for business.

Beware the Ides of March

As the U.K. belatedly began its first lockdown on 23 March 2020, Northern Ireland’s First Minister proclaimed that she was “following the science” by delaying closure of regional schools.  Despite that principled stance, her party has subsequently exhibited signs which point to some jettisoning of its scientific adherence.  This involves the apparent prioritising of business development over the recommendations from her Chief Medical Officer (CMO) and her Chief Scientific Officer (CSO).

When her 5-party coalition government modified the scientists’ recommendation of a 6-week circuit-breaker and agreed to a less stringent 4-week plan on 14 October ending on 19 November (“no ifs no buts,” said the First Minister at the outset), some prominent DUP members broke ranks within a day of the plan’s launch. 

They criticised the impact of closure on business; and a subsequent week-long spat culminated in the unedifying scene of the CMO having to correct one of her senior party members, a former Health Minister, for misrepresenting the public health message.

Circuit not being broken

On a subsequent occasion a party MP criticised the head of the British Medical Association in NI for being rich enough to be able to ignore businesses.  This was when the GP repeated cautions about the growing crisis in emergency medicine.

 When a party leader fails to censure an MP attacking apolitical advisors who are experts in medicine and science, trust in political leadership suffers.  The community is aghast when prominent politicians undercut the ethos of “we’re all in this together.”  Fomenting division makes marketing and successful implementation of measures to suppress the killer virus much more difficult.

As the regional government’s Executive met (w/e 14 Nov) to review the operation of the circuit breaker after 3 of its 4-week stint, the scientists again warned of the likely need for extending restrictions.  

Reading between the lines, this means that the CSO/CMO were expressing well-founded concerns that the virus was spreading and that the current measures were insufficiently rigorous.

As an electorate well-used to collapsible administration waited patiently for its government’s decision to review, paralysis infected the body politic. The CMO/CSO recommendations for a 2-week extension were presented by the trusted Unionist Minister of Health but were vetoed by the “business-friendly” DUP.  Days came and went with no agreement in sight as exasperated businesses appealed for “clarity” to allow businesses time to plan.

Regional administration fragility

The eventual agreement after 4 days of rancour, involving a 1-week extension of restrictions and a phased reopening of hospitality business pleased nobody.[ii]  Public disenchantment with dilatory politicians returned, morphing into disbelief and mistrust.  Worst of all has been the impact of dithering, bickering and vetoing on public and business confidence in the administration which was badly punctured, again.  

As the BBC report explained,

“whereas the DUP pushed for restrictions to end sooner... other parties point to the advice from public health officials which says that the situation in NI is still at a level too unpredictable to commit to opening up again.”

People were left wondering about the rationale used by politicians to make life and death decisions, the health of the public.  On the one hand, people know that recommendations from the scientists are based on objective research and analysis of statistical datasets.  On the other hand, people ask what evidence and selection criteria do the leaders of regional Government use to justify rejection and compromising of the scientific expertise. 

The NI Executive, after all, has published its own policy-making guidelines[iii] explaining how to deliver on the imperative.  Chapter 3 emphasises the need for policy to be evidence-based.

Exponential spread of virus in Northern Ireland

All of the political acrimony was happening at a time when Northern Ireland has been witnessing the worst infection rates in the U.K.  The surge in case numbers has been evident to the scientists for many weeks.  It seems probable that the viral spread is connected to insufficient regard being paid to the CMO/CSO expertise. 

And this also at a time when our neighbours across the border became the first country in Europe to reduce infection rates for three successive weeks.  Ireland’s scientists had noted that rates in 25 of its counties had been suppressed significantly half-way into its stringent lockdown, the sole exception being County Donegal.  

Source:European Centre for Disease Prevention & Control, Irish Times 14 Nov 2020

In contrast to NI, the Republic’s 6-week lockdown included all retail rather than just hospitality and close personal services of NI’s 4-week circuit-break, as well as a 5k travel-from-home limit and no travel beyond county borders. 

As two journalists reported[iv] (3 weeks into the strict 6-week lockdown):-

“Ireland was the first European country to return to lockdown and now has the longest period of decreasing infections in Europe.”

The same paper’s Health editor, in similar vein, reported[v] that:-

“...in Northern Ireland the incidence of the virus is more than four times that of the Republic; and the incidence of a virus patient dying in intensive care in the Republic is less than half that in the U.K.”  

Veto to resist stronger controls on business

In advance of the review to consider extending restrictions of the 4-week compromise, a DUP MP and the party leader went public to declare that the party would veto further measures which threaten business. The MP also attacked the Unionist Health Minister.  He argued that the Minister

“would be better concentrating on how he can improve the health service rather than destroying the economy to deal with the failings of his Department and of himself as a Minister.[vi]”  

This bellicose message was broadcast despite the CSO and CMO saying that further restrictions to protect public health and the NHS will be needed in December, such are the infection rates.  The scientists, in other words, were repeating their concerns about the worsening impact of the pandemic on NI.  Pressure on hospitals was rising exponentially and the NHS was under threat.

Climb down

On the evening of 19 November, the DUP performed a volte face and followed the science that has been staring us all in the face for weeks.  In a show of much-needed cabinet collective responsibility, the NI Executive surprised its long-suffering constituents by agreeing without a single veto to a two-week lock-down of greater stringency beginning a week hence. This, as one journalist[vii] put it,

“only a week after less stringent measures were blocked by her party.”

A range of business interests has, unsurprisingly, expressed withering criticism of regional government’s handling of the pandemic.[viii]  Shops closed for four weeks, allowed to open for one week only with little time to plan, and then must close for two weeks maybe more, like a merry-go-round.  Business uncertainty and anger with governmental administration are loud and clear, literally and metaphorically an open and shut case.  Hospitality Ulster, to pick one example, said

“all trust in the Executive by the hospitality sector has been wiped away... we have been left with no trade, no hope and a huge amount of redundancies...”

The party which alienated its four coalition partners in using a “cross-community” veto on tightening public health regulations a week previously has now managed to “destroy” its Tory-inspired reputation for business acumen for added good measure. 

To aggravate politicians and attack scientists is one thing; but to disillusion the domestic electorate and the business community at the same time is bordering on reckless.  Dysfunction rules.

A 7-day interregnum between the end of the 4-week circuit-breaker and the new 2-week Christmas-saviour lockdown allows citizens and businesses more space to engage in retail therapy before being locked out between 26 November and 11 December. 

With the temporary easing of restrictions and the lure of Christmas being compressed time-wise, it will be sobering to observe Northern Ireland’s infection rates in the coming weeks.

 

 

©Michael McSorley 2020

 

Postscript:-

This Covid-19 series comprises of the following articles :- 

Part 1 (24 March 2020) A Test for Elected Leaders[ix] 

Part 2 (11 April 2020) Coping with Contagion, a Survival Strategy.[x]

Part 3 (30 April 2020) The New Vocabulary[xi]

Part 4 (21 May 2020) Following the Science[xii]

Part 5 (11 June 2020) Beautiful books[xiii]

Part 6 (25 June 2020) Stone Circles[xiv]

Part 7 (26 July 2020) Finding positives in a global crisis[xv]

Part 8 (21 August 2020) Humour for the pandemic[xvi]

Part 9 (28 September 2020) Holidays at Home[xvii]

Part 10 (10 October 2020) The London Marathon[xviii]

Part 11 (30 October 2020) Halowe’en[xix]

Part 12 (21 November 2020) Discord and Division

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

---

[i] The Observer, editorial 15 Nov 2020.  "Dominic Cummings"

[ii] BBC NI News 14 Nov 2020 “Coronavirus; Latest row shows Stormont Relations Fragile as ever” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54931512

[iii] A Practical Guide to Policy Making in Northern Ireland 2 May 2016 NI Executive

https://www.executiveoffice-ni.gov.uk/publications/practical-guide-policy-making-northern-ireland

[iv] Irish Times 14 Nov 2020 Paul Scott and Naomi O’Leary

[v] Irish Times 14 Nov 2020 Paul Cullen

[vi] Belfast Telegraph 17 Nov 2020 Suzanne Breen “DUP’s Wilson called pathetic and petty for latest attack on Swann.”

[vii] Irish Times 21 Nov 2020 Freya McClements Northern correspondent “Foster defends shift to tougher lockdown measures.”

[viii] Belfast Telegraph 20 Nov 2020 "NI Executive tightens restrictions but business chiefs scathing about devastating move before Christmas" 

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus/ni-executive-tightens-covid-restrictions-but-business-chiefs-scathing-of-devastating-move-before-christmas-39768553.html?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=BT:DailyNews&hConversionEventId=AQEAAZQF2gAmdjQwMDAwMDE3NS1lNGMzLWZiZGItYTU2Mi1jODE2M2VkMGFiODHaACRhMzFjZmEwYy04MWU5LTRmNWEtMDAwMC0wMjFlZjNhMGJjYznaACRiOGM1YTNlNS0zOGVkLTQyZmEtYTlhMS1mMjRlMTIzODBlMDmYtw50DKr6TQzTYAPJdo5Obm-US-GvVzs7ZDSJC2hjow

[ix] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-test-for-elected-leaders.html

[x] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/coping-with-contagion-survival-strategy.html

[xi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-new-vocabulary.html

[xii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/05/following-science.html

[xiii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/beautiful-books.html

[xiv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-archaeology-of-stone-circles.html

[xv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/07/finding-positives-in-global-crisis.html

[xvi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/08/humour-for-pandemic.html

[xvii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/09/holidays-at-home.html

[xviii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-virtual-london-marathon.html

[xix] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-spirits-of-haloween.html

The Spirits of Haloween

 All Hallows’ Eve

As nature introduced autumn cloaked in the beauty of golden leaves falling, Covid-19 reared its ugly head again heralding an exponential acceleration of infection rates. 

Haloween’s reputation for scariness is on full alert.  The festival of Samhain established by the ancient Celts fits well with this deadly pandemic.  As the Encyclopaedia Britannica explains[i]:-

“the souls of those who died during the year were believed to return to visit their homes and those who died during the year were believed to journey to the otherworld.”

Governments across Europe have reacted to the lethal virus’s unwelcome return by bringing back restrictions[ii] to make people stop meeting and greeting so much.  

Britain’s record

In the U.K., public support willing the Government to act and do the right thing has waned gradually since the spring.  The best efforts of a new administration to take back control are met with continuing dispute.  Divided has a better case to make as the Kingdom’s adjective rather than “United.”  Bonds that would normally bring citizens and leaders together at a time of national emergency are wilting under the pressure. 

Criticisms of Westminster’s handling of the pandemic since March include:-

·         The early lack of diagnostic testing and abandonment in March of community testing because of insufficient capacity.  This in the “world’s fifth biggest economy”

·         Recurring concern and arguments about lack of Personal Protective Equipment for front-line NHS staff and for care workers

·         The effect on the death rate caused by delay in declaring a national emergency in March.  The epidemiological modeller Prof Neil Ferguson (Imperial College London) told a House of Commons committee that “at least half” of all deaths in the UK could have been saved if the Prime Minister had locked down the country even a week earlier than 23 March

·         Arguments about accuracy of death toll statistics for GB and for N Ireland (see footnote);[iii] and about comparability of U.K. performance with that of foreign nations

·         Warning by Sir David King former Chief Scientific Advisor to the U.K. Government on 30 May that it was too early to start lifting the lock-down

·         The belated addition of loss of taste and smell as symptoms of the virus

·         The reaction of the British public to the change in strategy from Stay at Home to the confusing Stay Alert

·         Recalcitrant behaviour by the PM’s chief advisor Dominic Cummings

·         Government being forced under pressure into changing policies (dubbed “U-turns”), such as bending to Marcus Rashford’s campaign for free school  meals for deprived children during summer holidays – and continuing[iv]

·         Words like débacle, chaos and shambles rather than job well done greeted the method of dealing with cancelled school exams and algorithmic prediction of grades

·         The genuineness of the PM’s criticism of the EU for failing to meet his deadline (15 October) to reach a post-Brexit trade deal lost impact when he was simultaneously unable to reach agreement with Mayors in Manchester about the tightening of Covid restrictions up north.

·         Continuing criticism of the Government’s track and trace system.

In August the distinguished author and journalist Max Hastings examined its “missteps and failures” (among others) arguing[v] emphatically that

“today’s cabinet is the least impressive of the past century ... a cabinet unified in inadequacy... Johnson and Cummings rule from the Trump playbook. The two have no design for making Britain a better place; instead only for Brexit and their own survival to assist delivery of what seems popular.”

 

A nation divided

The polarisation of the Brexit campaign has made its mark in dividing public opinion and communities, leaving an indelible imprint.  Scotland now adds Covid to Brexit in its case for a constitutional referendum; Wales bans British residents of hotspots like Merseyside from crossing its border; and furious arguments rage in England amid allegations of Government welshing on election promises to “level up” in the north having won “red wall” seats in December’s General Election.

Recent weeks have seen elected leaders in the north of England complain that Manchester and northern cities are being experimented on by southern Conservatives while sparing the Home Counties.[vi]  Into that mix, add the row about hungry children featuring 22 year-old Marcus Rashford from Manchester United football club.  If a modest sportsman’s deft prowess can force Government into a second u-turn, he (in sporting parlance) could be sitting on a hat-trick – again.[vii]

Others argue that England has always had a north-south divide:-   

“...we can insist against all the evidence that we are one nation that, as Churchill saw in 1912, will almost always be ruled by the party of the south.”[viii] 

But so what?  The tragic answer is that the consequence of dissent and division may be that “compliance with new tough laws to combat Covid would be some way short of total.”[ix] 

Decoded, this means that national division threatens the effectiveness of measures to protect public health and that the pandemic will deteriorate.

Some complain that the use of different approaches by Westminster and by the devolved administrations is confusing.  While England and Scotland use localised restrictions to tackle the spreading virus, Northern Ireland (with the U.K.’s highest infection rates) followed by Wales (despite it having the U.K’s lowest infection rates) have moved to region-wide circuit-breakers. 

With Northern Ireland‘s spiralling infection rates, its scientists recommended a 6-week lockdown.   Ditching the First Minister’s earlier stance of “following the science,” the Executive eventually approved a compromise plan short of full lock-down to last for 4 weeks. The notable political plus of the consensus is that it provides an encouraging example of collective cabinet responsibility. 

Support for the new policy from within the biggest party (the DUP), however, seemed to be less than unanimous.  While England was demonstrating a lack of political cohesion geographically, Northern Ireland’s main party was exhibiting it internally and going public in the process.

The day before the new plan received cross-party support, two prominent MPs argued that their local constituencies had low infection rates and that tightening restrictions was unjustifiable.  The day after the new policy was announced, criticism emerged from other DUP MPs.  A week of embarrassing argument about “solo runs,” about undermining of the message and even about “sectarianising” Covid followed.  It was disappointing to see the apolitical Chief Medical Officer having to refute an MP’s false claim.

Time will tell if the 17-day lockdown in Wales, the 4-week approach in Northern Ireland, or the stricter 6-week lockdown in the Republic of Ireland will suppress the virus sufficiently.

Public trust

The pattern of events – from the record death rate to the unpunished and myopic actions of the PM’s advisor – did not build public confidence in Westminster’s competence in crisis management.  As far back as late April, for example, opinion polls were showing a loss of trust in Government’s handling of the pandemic.[x]  Mistrust in the Government’s ability to deal with an emergency makes implementation of its actions, however crucial and well-intentioned, more difficult. 

The journalist[xi] and former Tory MP Matthew Parris compared Sweden’s strategy with the U.K’s.  Community cohesion, he writes, keeps Swedes obedient whereas “we British lack this kind of team spirit.”  Even though the Swedes have criticisms of their Government’s approach, they see “decisiveness in its leaders ...a settled sense of direction that gives lighthouse-like reassurance.”  In Sweden the electorate “trust that government does have a policy.” 

Contrast the reaction in U.K. to renewed restrictions and the relatively compliant attitude of those in Ireland to a much fuller lockdown announced on 19 October and which began on Wednesday 21 October to run for 6 weeks.  As with Sweden, its people seem to trust its self-assured scientists and its coalition Government.  That cohesive attitude makes the task of implementing draconian measures to regain control over the virus more achievable.

Trust, confidence, community cohesion and support – without these, the Government will continue to struggle to achieve the PM’s explicit objective of defeating the virus.  

In the absence of faith in Government, Halowe’en in Britain might necessitate invoking the spirits of the ancient Celts.

 

©Michael McSorley 2020

 

Postscript:-

This Covid-19 series comprises of the following articles :- 

Part 1 (24 March 2020) A Test for Elected Leaders[xii] 

Part 2 (11 April 2020) Coping with Contagion, a Survival Strategy.[xiii]

Part 3 (30 April 2020) The New Vocabulary[xiv]

Part 4 (21 May 2020) Following the Science[xv]

Part 5 (11 June 2020) Beautiful books[xvi]

Part 6 (25 June 2020) Stone Circles[xvii]

Part 7 (26 July 2020) Finding positives in a global crisis[xviii]

Part 8 (21 August 2020) Humour for the pandemic[xix]

Part 9 (28 September 2020) Holidays at Home[xx]

Part 10 (10 October 2020) The London Marathon[xxi]

Part 11 (30 October 2020)  The Spirits of Halowe’en

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

---

[i] https://www.britannica.com/topic/Halloween

[ii] BBC News 29 Oct 2020 “Lockdowns return as Europe confronts second wave” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54728893

[iii] BBCNI News 30 Oct 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54734944

NI Dept of Health death toll count at 23 Oct 2020 was 643, the official figure; the death toll recorded by the NI Statistics and Research Agency at the same date was significantly higher at 972.

[iv] The Times 24 October 2020 pp8-9 “Tory Councils turn against PM in battle for free school meals”

[v] The Times 15 August 2020 Max Hastings “This lapdog cabinet is the weakest in a century”

[vi] The Times 17 October 2020 pp6-7 “You’re putting lives in danger: PM tells Burnham”

[vii] BBC Sport 29 October 2020 “Man Utd striker scores hat-trick after 1 million signatures” https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54727940

[viii][viii] Observer 25 October 2020 p 47 James Hawes “The north-south divide is as old as England itself. Unity is only ever fleeting”

[ix] Observer 25 October 2020 pp6-7 Toby Helm “Frustration rising as clampdowns spread. Are we in the grip of Covid fatigue?”

[x] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/trust-wanes-in-uk-ministers-handling-of-coronavirus-pandemic-poll

[xi] The Times 10 Oct 2020 “Our Leaders seem clueless about Covid” Matthew Parris

[xii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-test-for-elected-leaders.html

[xiii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/coping-with-contagion-survival-strategy.html

[xiv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-new-vocabulary.html

[xv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/05/following-science.html

[xvi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/beautiful-books.html

[xvii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-archaeology-of-stone-circles.html

[xviii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/07/finding-positives-in-global-crisis.html

[xix] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/08/humour-for-pandemic.html

[xx] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/09/holidays-at-home.html

[xxi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-virtual-london-marathon.html