The Spirits of Haloween

 All Hallows’ Eve

As nature introduced autumn cloaked in the beauty of golden leaves falling, Covid-19 reared its ugly head again heralding an exponential acceleration of infection rates. 

Haloween’s reputation for scariness is on full alert.  The festival of Samhain established by the ancient Celts fits well with this deadly pandemic.  As the Encyclopaedia Britannica explains[i]:-

“the souls of those who died during the year were believed to return to visit their homes and those who died during the year were believed to journey to the otherworld.”

Governments across Europe have reacted to the lethal virus’s unwelcome return by bringing back restrictions[ii] to make people stop meeting and greeting so much.  

Britain’s record

In the U.K., public support willing the Government to act and do the right thing has waned gradually since the spring.  The best efforts of a new administration to take back control are met with continuing dispute.  Divided has a better case to make as the Kingdom’s adjective rather than “United.”  Bonds that would normally bring citizens and leaders together at a time of national emergency are wilting under the pressure. 

Criticisms of Westminster’s handling of the pandemic since March include:-

·         The early lack of diagnostic testing and abandonment in March of community testing because of insufficient capacity.  This in the “world’s fifth biggest economy”

·         Recurring concern and arguments about lack of Personal Protective Equipment for front-line NHS staff and for care workers

·         The effect on the death rate caused by delay in declaring a national emergency in March.  The epidemiological modeller Prof Neil Ferguson (Imperial College London) told a House of Commons committee that “at least half” of all deaths in the UK could have been saved if the Prime Minister had locked down the country even a week earlier than 23 March

·         Arguments about accuracy of death toll statistics for GB and for N Ireland (see footnote);[iii] and about comparability of U.K. performance with that of foreign nations

·         Warning by Sir David King former Chief Scientific Advisor to the U.K. Government on 30 May that it was too early to start lifting the lock-down

·         The belated addition of loss of taste and smell as symptoms of the virus

·         The reaction of the British public to the change in strategy from Stay at Home to the confusing Stay Alert

·         Recalcitrant behaviour by the PM’s chief advisor Dominic Cummings

·         Government being forced under pressure into changing policies (dubbed “U-turns”), such as bending to Marcus Rashford’s campaign for free school  meals for deprived children during summer holidays – and continuing[iv]

·         Words like débacle, chaos and shambles rather than job well done greeted the method of dealing with cancelled school exams and algorithmic prediction of grades

·         The genuineness of the PM’s criticism of the EU for failing to meet his deadline (15 October) to reach a post-Brexit trade deal lost impact when he was simultaneously unable to reach agreement with Mayors in Manchester about the tightening of Covid restrictions up north.

·         Continuing criticism of the Government’s track and trace system.

In August the distinguished author and journalist Max Hastings examined its “missteps and failures” (among others) arguing[v] emphatically that

“today’s cabinet is the least impressive of the past century ... a cabinet unified in inadequacy... Johnson and Cummings rule from the Trump playbook. The two have no design for making Britain a better place; instead only for Brexit and their own survival to assist delivery of what seems popular.”

 

A nation divided

The polarisation of the Brexit campaign has made its mark in dividing public opinion and communities, leaving an indelible imprint.  Scotland now adds Covid to Brexit in its case for a constitutional referendum; Wales bans British residents of hotspots like Merseyside from crossing its border; and furious arguments rage in England amid allegations of Government welshing on election promises to “level up” in the north having won “red wall” seats in December’s General Election.

Recent weeks have seen elected leaders in the north of England complain that Manchester and northern cities are being experimented on by southern Conservatives while sparing the Home Counties.[vi]  Into that mix, add the row about hungry children featuring 22 year-old Marcus Rashford from Manchester United football club.  If a modest sportsman’s deft prowess can force Government into a second u-turn, he (in sporting parlance) could be sitting on a hat-trick – again.[vii]

Others argue that England has always had a north-south divide:-   

“...we can insist against all the evidence that we are one nation that, as Churchill saw in 1912, will almost always be ruled by the party of the south.”[viii] 

But so what?  The tragic answer is that the consequence of dissent and division may be that “compliance with new tough laws to combat Covid would be some way short of total.”[ix] 

Decoded, this means that national division threatens the effectiveness of measures to protect public health and that the pandemic will deteriorate.

Some complain that the use of different approaches by Westminster and by the devolved administrations is confusing.  While England and Scotland use localised restrictions to tackle the spreading virus, Northern Ireland (with the U.K.’s highest infection rates) followed by Wales (despite it having the U.K’s lowest infection rates) have moved to region-wide circuit-breakers. 

With Northern Ireland‘s spiralling infection rates, its scientists recommended a 6-week lockdown.   Ditching the First Minister’s earlier stance of “following the science,” the Executive eventually approved a compromise plan short of full lock-down to last for 4 weeks. The notable political plus of the consensus is that it provides an encouraging example of collective cabinet responsibility. 

Support for the new policy from within the biggest party (the DUP), however, seemed to be less than unanimous.  While England was demonstrating a lack of political cohesion geographically, Northern Ireland’s main party was exhibiting it internally and going public in the process.

The day before the new plan received cross-party support, two prominent MPs argued that their local constituencies had low infection rates and that tightening restrictions was unjustifiable.  The day after the new policy was announced, criticism emerged from other DUP MPs.  A week of embarrassing argument about “solo runs,” about undermining of the message and even about “sectarianising” Covid followed.  It was disappointing to see the apolitical Chief Medical Officer having to refute an MP’s false claim.

Time will tell if the 17-day lockdown in Wales, the 4-week approach in Northern Ireland, or the stricter 6-week lockdown in the Republic of Ireland will suppress the virus sufficiently.

Public trust

The pattern of events – from the record death rate to the unpunished and myopic actions of the PM’s advisor – did not build public confidence in Westminster’s competence in crisis management.  As far back as late April, for example, opinion polls were showing a loss of trust in Government’s handling of the pandemic.[x]  Mistrust in the Government’s ability to deal with an emergency makes implementation of its actions, however crucial and well-intentioned, more difficult. 

The journalist[xi] and former Tory MP Matthew Parris compared Sweden’s strategy with the U.K’s.  Community cohesion, he writes, keeps Swedes obedient whereas “we British lack this kind of team spirit.”  Even though the Swedes have criticisms of their Government’s approach, they see “decisiveness in its leaders ...a settled sense of direction that gives lighthouse-like reassurance.”  In Sweden the electorate “trust that government does have a policy.” 

Contrast the reaction in U.K. to renewed restrictions and the relatively compliant attitude of those in Ireland to a much fuller lockdown announced on 19 October and which began on Wednesday 21 October to run for 6 weeks.  As with Sweden, its people seem to trust its self-assured scientists and its coalition Government.  That cohesive attitude makes the task of implementing draconian measures to regain control over the virus more achievable.

Trust, confidence, community cohesion and support – without these, the Government will continue to struggle to achieve the PM’s explicit objective of defeating the virus.  

In the absence of faith in Government, Halowe’en in Britain might necessitate invoking the spirits of the ancient Celts.

 

©Michael McSorley 2020

 

Postscript:-

This Covid-19 series comprises of the following articles :- 

Part 1 (24 March 2020) A Test for Elected Leaders[xii] 

Part 2 (11 April 2020) Coping with Contagion, a Survival Strategy.[xiii]

Part 3 (30 April 2020) The New Vocabulary[xiv]

Part 4 (21 May 2020) Following the Science[xv]

Part 5 (11 June 2020) Beautiful books[xvi]

Part 6 (25 June 2020) Stone Circles[xvii]

Part 7 (26 July 2020) Finding positives in a global crisis[xviii]

Part 8 (21 August 2020) Humour for the pandemic[xix]

Part 9 (28 September 2020) Holidays at Home[xx]

Part 10 (10 October 2020) The London Marathon[xxi]

Part 11 (30 October 2020)  The Spirits of Halowe’en

 

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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[i] https://www.britannica.com/topic/Halloween

[ii] BBC News 29 Oct 2020 “Lockdowns return as Europe confronts second wave” https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54728893

[iii] BBCNI News 30 Oct 2020 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-54734944

NI Dept of Health death toll count at 23 Oct 2020 was 643, the official figure; the death toll recorded by the NI Statistics and Research Agency at the same date was significantly higher at 972.

[iv] The Times 24 October 2020 pp8-9 “Tory Councils turn against PM in battle for free school meals”

[v] The Times 15 August 2020 Max Hastings “This lapdog cabinet is the weakest in a century”

[vi] The Times 17 October 2020 pp6-7 “You’re putting lives in danger: PM tells Burnham”

[vii] BBC Sport 29 October 2020 “Man Utd striker scores hat-trick after 1 million signatures” https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/54727940

[viii][viii] Observer 25 October 2020 p 47 James Hawes “The north-south divide is as old as England itself. Unity is only ever fleeting”

[ix] Observer 25 October 2020 pp6-7 Toby Helm “Frustration rising as clampdowns spread. Are we in the grip of Covid fatigue?”

[x] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/trust-wanes-in-uk-ministers-handling-of-coronavirus-pandemic-poll

[xi] The Times 10 Oct 2020 “Our Leaders seem clueless about Covid” Matthew Parris

[xii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/03/a-test-for-elected-leaders.html

[xiii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/coping-with-contagion-survival-strategy.html

[xiv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/04/the-new-vocabulary.html

[xv] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/05/following-science.html

[xvi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/beautiful-books.html

[xvii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/06/the-archaeology-of-stone-circles.html

[xviii] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/07/finding-positives-in-global-crisis.html

[xix] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/08/humour-for-pandemic.html

[xx] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/09/holidays-at-home.html

[xxi] https://michaelcovid19.blogspot.com/2020/10/the-virtual-london-marathon.html